Food, Fertility, Land and Uganda

November 12, 2009

The more that I see of the rural poverty, the life of the subsistence farmers who comprise a large chunk of the population, the disputes over access to fertile land and the large numbers of children (families of 10 children are not uncommon) that Ugandan women bear, the more distressed I have felt about trying to meet the basic needs of so many people. It was with great interest, then, that I bought the October 31st issue of The Economist which featured a cover story called “Falling fertility: How the population problem is solving itself.” This is a very well-written and engaging article which stimulated some sense of relief as well as concern in me. Some of the key points:

 The replacement level of fertility is 2.1. The global average fertility rate is 2.3. The dramatically falling fertility rate (in 1950 it was 5.0) will dip below the global replacement rate for the first time in 2020.

 In the 1970s only 24 countries had fertility rates of 2.1 or less, all of them rich. Now there are over 70 such countries, and in every continent, including Africa.

 Between 1950 and 2000 the average fertility rate in developing countries fell by half from six to three- three fewer children in each family in just 50 years.

The Economist reports that the reason for this is that poor agrarian families find it more advantageous and less costly (per child) to have more children but that as their financial circumstances improve smaller families are more desired and make greater economic sense. Data show a strong relationship between per capita income and fertility. The spread of female education also leads to decreased fertility. Note that even if current projections hold, the world population is still expected to grow from 6 to 9 billion people before it levels off. Can our planet really support 3 billion more people and maintain ecological health? I am certainly not an expert on these matters. I just wanted to share them with you because I found it very interesting to read about. I must admit there is a part of me that gets so overwhelmed when I start thinking about environmental issues and population (issues such as de-forestaion, greenhouse gases, pollution, oil) that I think, “the next generation will just have to handle this without me” and I go back to concentrating on making a difference in my own small ways in spheres that I especially care about.